A practical collection of templates, frameworks, and tools for scenario analysis and strategic thinking. Whether you're planning for an uncertain business environment, evaluating investment decisions, or making life choices under uncertainty, these tools help you think through multiple futures systematically.
- What is Scenario Thinking?
- Templates
- Frameworks
- How to Facilitate a Scenario Workshop
- Resources
- License
Scenario thinking is not prediction. It's a disciplined method for imagining multiple plausible futures and preparing for each. The goal isn't to get the forecast right — it's to make better decisions that are robust across a range of outcomes.
| Traditional Planning | Scenario Planning |
|---|---|
| Single forecast ("this will happen") | Multiple plausible futures |
| Brittle — fails when forecast is wrong | Resilient — prepared for several outcomes |
| Creates false confidence | Reveals assumptions and blind spots |
| One plan | Flexible strategy with contingencies |
- Explore, don't predict — The future is unknowable. Explore a range of possibilities.
- Focus on driving forces — Identify the 2-3 key uncertainties that matter most.
- Make it vivid — Name your scenarios, tell stories. This makes them memorable and actionable.
- Challenge assumptions — The most valuable scenario is the one that makes you uncomfortable.
- Test your strategy — A good strategy performs well across multiple scenarios, not just the base case.
Use this template as a starting point for any scenario analysis.
# Scenario Planning: [Your Topic]
## Date: [Date]
## Participants: [Names]
## 1. Focal Question
What specific decision or issue are we trying to address?
> [Your question here]
## 2. Key Driving Forces
List the external forces that could shape the future:
| # | Driving Force | Impact (H/M/L) | Uncertainty (H/M/L) |
|---|--------------|-----------------|---------------------|
| 1 | | | |
| 2 | | | |
| 3 | | | |
| 4 | | | |
| 5 | | | |
## 3. Critical Uncertainties
Select the 2 forces with BOTH high impact AND high uncertainty:
- Uncertainty A: ___________
- Uncertainty B: ___________
## 4. Scenarios (2x2)
| | Uncertainty A: [High End] | Uncertainty A: [Low End] |
|--------------|--------------------------|--------------------------|
| **B: [High]** | Scenario 1: [Name] | Scenario 2: [Name] |
| **B: [Low]** | Scenario 3: [Name] | Scenario 4: [Name] |
### Scenario 1: [Vivid Name]
- **Description:** [2-3 paragraphs describing this future]
- **Key indicators:** [What early signals would tell us we're heading here?]
- **Implications:** [What does this mean for our decision?]
### Scenario 2: [Vivid Name]
- **Description:**
- **Key indicators:**
- **Implications:**
### Scenario 3: [Vivid Name]
- **Description:**
- **Key indicators:**
- **Implications:**
### Scenario 4: [Vivid Name]
- **Description:**
- **Key indicators:**
- **Implications:**
## 5. Strategic Implications
| Strategy Element | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 |
|-----------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
| Revenue impact | | | | |
| Key risks | | | | |
| Required actions | | | | |
## 6. Robust Strategies
Actions that perform well across ALL scenarios:
1.
2.
3.
## 7. Contingent Strategies
Actions triggered by specific scenarios:
- If [early signal] → [action]
- If [early signal] → [action]
## 8. Monitoring Plan
| Early Signal | Scenario Indicated | Check Frequency | Owner |
|-------------|-------------------|-----------------|-------|
| | | | |The most widely used scenario planning tool. Pick two critical uncertainties and create four distinct futures.
# 2x2 Scenario Matrix: [Topic]
## Critical Uncertainties
- **X-Axis:** [Uncertainty 1] — ranges from [low state] to [high state]
- **Y-Axis:** [Uncertainty 2] — ranges from [low state] to [high state]
## The Four Worlds
┌─────────────────────────────────┬─────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ │
│ SCENARIO B │ SCENARIO A │
│ "[Name]" │ "[Name]" │
│ │ │
│ [Uncertainty 1: LOW] │ [Uncertainty 1: HIGH] │
│ [Uncertainty 2: HIGH] │ [Uncertainty 2: HIGH] │
│ │ │
│ Story: │ Story: │
│ │ │
│ Key features: │ Key features: │
│ • │ • │
│ • │ • │
│ • │ • │
│ │ │
├─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ │
│ SCENARIO C │ SCENARIO D │
│ "[Name]" │ "[Name]" │
│ │ │
│ [Uncertainty 1: LOW] │ [Uncertainty 1: HIGH] │
│ [Uncertainty 2: LOW] │ [Uncertainty 2: LOW] │
│ │ │
│ Story: │ Story: │
│ │ │
│ Key features: │ Key features: │
│ • │ • │
│ • │ • │
│ • │ • │
│ │ │
└─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
## Wind-Tunnel Test
How does our current strategy perform in each scenario?
| Current Strategy Element | Sc. A | Sc. B | Sc. C | Sc. D |
|-------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|
| [Element 1] | ✅/❌ | ✅/❌ | ✅/❌ | ✅/❌ |
| [Element 2] | ✅/❌ | ✅/❌ | ✅/❌ | ✅/❌ |
| [Element 3] | ✅/❌ | ✅/❌ | ✅/❌ | ✅/❌ |When you have a specific decision with multiple options and uncertain outcomes.
# Decision Under Uncertainty: [Decision]
## Options
1. [Option A]
2. [Option B]
3. [Option C]
4. [Do nothing / Status quo]
## Possible States of the World
| State | Description | Estimated Probability |
|-------|-------------|----------------------|
| S1 | | ___% |
| S2 | | ___% |
| S3 | | ___% |
**Total: 100%**
## Payoff Matrix
Expected value of each option under each state:
| Option | S1 (p=___) | S2 (p=___) | S3 (p=___) | Expected Value |
|--------|-----------|-----------|-----------|---------------|
| A | | | | |
| B | | | | |
| C | | | | |
| Status quo | | | | |
## Decision Criteria
### Maximax (Optimistic)
Choose the option with the best possible outcome: _______
### Maximin (Pessimistic)
Choose the option with the best worst-case outcome: _______
### Expected Value
Choose the option with the highest expected value: _______
### Minimax Regret
Choose the option that minimizes maximum regret: _______
## Sensitivity Analysis
At what probability does the optimal choice change?
- If P(S1) increases above ___%, switch from ___ to ___
- If P(S2) increases above ___%, switch from ___ to ___Imagine the project has already failed. Why did it fail?
# Pre-Mortem Analysis: [Project Name]
## Setup
**Date:** [Date]
**Facilitator:** [Name]
**Assumption:** It is [date + 12 months]. This project has failed spectacularly.
## Individual Brainstorm (5 minutes, silent)
Each participant writes down 3-5 reasons for the failure.
## Consolidated Failure Modes
| # | Failure Mode | Category | Likelihood (1-5) | Impact (1-5) | Risk Score |
|---|-------------|----------|-------------------|---------------|------------|
| 1 | | Tech/People/Market/Execution | | | |
| 2 | | | | | |
| 3 | | | | | |
| 4 | | | | | |
| 5 | | | | | |
## Top 3 Risks & Mitigation Plans
### Risk 1: [Name] (Score: __)
- **Description:**
- **Early warning signs:**
- **Mitigation plan:**
- **Owner:**
- **Review date:**
### Risk 2: [Name] (Score: __)
- **Description:**
- **Early warning signs:**
- **Mitigation plan:**
- **Owner:**
- **Review date:**
### Risk 3: [Name] (Score: __)
- **Description:**
- **Early warning signs:**
- **Mitigation plan:**
- **Owner:**
- **Review date:**Evaluate an investment across multiple market conditions.
# Investment Scenario Analysis: [Company/Asset Name]
## Current Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Current price | $ |
| Market cap | $ |
| P/E ratio | |
| Revenue (TTM) | $ |
| Free cash flow | $ |
| Debt/Equity | |
## Scenario Definitions
### Bull Case (Probability: ___%)
- Revenue growth: ___%/year
- Margin expansion: ___%
- Multiple expansion to: ___x
- **Key assumptions:**
-
-
### Base Case (Probability: ___%)
- Revenue growth: ___%/year
- Stable margins: ___%
- Current multiple: ___x
- **Key assumptions:**
-
-
### Bear Case (Probability: ___%)
- Revenue growth: ___%/year (or decline)
- Margin compression: ___%
- Multiple contraction to: ___x
- **Key assumptions:**
-
-
## Valuation by Scenario
| Metric | Bull | Base | Bear |
|--------|------|------|------|
| Revenue (Year 5) | $ | $ | $ |
| Net margin | % | % | % |
| Net income | $ | $ | $ |
| P/E multiple | x | x | x |
| Target price | $ | $ | $ |
| Upside/Downside | % | % | % |
## Expected Value
EV = (Bull probability × Bull return) + (Base probability × Base return) + (Bear probability × Bear return)
EV = (___% × ___%) + (___% × ___%) + (___% × ___%) = **___%**
## Decision
- [ ] Expected value > required return → **Invest**
- [ ] Bear case downside is survivable → **Risk acceptable**
- [ ] Margin of safety exists in base case → **Adequate protection**A structured approach to career choices.
# Career Decision Scenario: [Decision]
## Options
| # | Option | Description |
|---|--------|-------------|
| 1 | | |
| 2 | | |
| 3 | | |
## Evaluation Criteria (Weighted)
| Criterion | Weight | Option 1 (1-10) | Option 2 (1-10) | Option 3 (1-10) |
|-----------|--------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------|
| Financial compensation | __% | | | |
| Learning & growth | __% | | | |
| Work-life balance | __% | | | |
| Long-term optionality | __% | | | |
| Mission alignment | __% | | | |
| Team & culture | __% | | | |
| **Weighted Total** | 100% | | | |
## Time Horizon Test
| Option | 10 days | 10 months | 10 years |
|--------|---------|-----------|----------|
| 1 | | | |
| 2 | | | |
| 3 | | | |
## Regret Minimization
At age 80, which choice would I most regret NOT trying?
## Reversibility Assessment
| Option | Reversible? | Cost to Reverse |
|--------|------------|-----------------|
| 1 | Yes/No | |
| 2 | Yes/No | |
| 3 | Yes/No | |# Product Launch Scenarios: [Product Name]
## Key Uncertainties
1. Market adoption rate: [Slow / Medium / Fast]
2. Competitive response: [None / Moderate / Aggressive]
3. Technical readiness: [Smooth / Issues / Major problems]
## Scenario Matrix (Market × Competition)
| | Competitors passive | Competitors aggressive |
|---|---|---|
| **Fast adoption** | 🟢 Breakout | 🟡 Land Grab |
| **Slow adoption** | 🟡 Slow Burn | 🔴 Uphill Battle |
## Strategy by Scenario
### Breakout (Best case)
- **Strategy:** Scale fast, capture market share
- **Investment level:** High
- **Key actions:** Expand team, increase marketing, add features rapidly
### Land Grab (Competitive race)
- **Strategy:** Differentiate, lock in customers
- **Investment level:** High
- **Key actions:** Switching costs, exclusive partnerships, rapid iteration
### Slow Burn (Patient growth)
- **Strategy:** Keep costs low, iterate based on feedback
- **Investment level:** Moderate
- **Key actions:** Focus on unit economics, build word-of-mouth, maintain optionality
### Uphill Battle (Worst case)
- **Strategy:** Pivot or narrow focus to defensible niche
- **Investment level:** Minimal
- **Key actions:** Reduce burn, find underserved segment, consider partnerships
## Tripwires (When to Shift Strategy)
| Signal | Threshold | Action |
|--------|-----------|--------|
| Monthly active users | < [X] by month 3 | Shift to Slow Burn strategy |
| Competitor launch | Direct competitor with > $10M funding | Shift to Land Grab strategy |
| Revenue per user | > $[X] by month 6 | Shift to Breakout strategy |# Crisis Scenario Playbook: [Organization]
## Scenario Categories
### Financial Crisis
| Scenario | Trigger | Severity | Response Plan |
|----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Revenue drop 20% | Major client loss | High | Trigger cost reduction plan A |
| Revenue drop 50% | Market downturn | Critical | Trigger survival plan |
| Cash runway < 6 months | Multiple factors | Critical | Emergency fundraise / M&A |
### Operational Crisis
| Scenario | Trigger | Severity | Response Plan |
|----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Key person departure | Resignation | Medium | Succession plan activation |
| Data breach | Security incident | Critical | Incident response protocol |
| Service outage > 24h | Infrastructure failure | High | DR plan activation |
### Reputational Crisis
| Scenario | Trigger | Severity | Response Plan |
|----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Negative press coverage | Product failure | Medium | PR response protocol |
| Social media crisis | Customer incident | High | Crisis communication plan |
## Response Decision TreeIncident detected ├── Assess severity (Critical / High / Medium / Low) ├── Critical → Activate crisis team within 1 hour │ ├── Internal communication within 2 hours │ ├── External communication within 4 hours │ └── Daily standup until resolved ├── High → Activate response lead within 4 hours └── Medium/Low → Standard response within 24 hours
Developed by Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s (and credited with helping them prepare for the oil crisis).
Process:
- Identify the focal issue (specific decision or challenge)
- List driving forces (trends, uncertainties, wild cards)
- Rank by impact and uncertainty (2x2 plot)
- Select two critical uncertainties (highest impact + highest uncertainty)
- Build four scenarios (2x2 matrix)
- Develop narratives (vivid, named stories for each scenario)
- Identify implications (what each scenario means for your strategy)
- Select indicators (early warning signs for each scenario)
When you have quantifiable variables with ranges of uncertainty:
- Define input variables with probability distributions
- Run thousands of simulations with random sampling
- Analyze the distribution of outcomes
- Focus on the range of likely outcomes, not a single point estimate
Simple version (no software needed):
- Best case estimate: ___
- Most likely estimate: ___
- Worst case estimate: ___
- Simple weighted: (Best + 4×Most likely + Worst) / 6 = ___
Present ──→ Near Future ──→ Medium Term ──→ Long Term
[Known] [Probable] [Plausible] [Possible]
╱─── Scenario A
╱──── Scenario B
───────────╱───── Scenario C (base)
╲──── Scenario D
╲─── Scenario E
Use narrower scenarios for near-term planning and wider scenarios for long-term strategy.
- 6-10 participants from diverse perspectives
- 3-4 hours blocked
- Whiteboard, sticky notes, markers
- Pre-read materials on the focal issue
| Time | Activity |
|---|---|
| 0:00-0:20 | Frame the focal question |
| 0:20-0:50 | Brainstorm driving forces (individual then group) |
| 0:50-1:10 | Rank forces by impact × uncertainty |
| 1:10-1:20 | Break |
| 1:20-1:50 | Select critical uncertainties, create 2x2 matrix |
| 1:50-2:30 | Develop scenario narratives (small groups) |
| 2:30-2:40 | Break |
| 2:40-3:10 | Present scenarios, stress-test current strategy |
| 3:10-3:40 | Identify robust strategies and contingency triggers |
| 3:40-4:00 | Assign monitoring responsibilities |
- Encourage wild ideas — the point is to explore, not predict
- Prevent anchoring on "most likely" scenario
- Ensure each scenario is internally consistent
- Name scenarios with memorable, vivid titles (not "Scenario 1")
Books:
- The Art of the Long View — Peter Schwartz
- Scenario Planning in Organizations — Thomas Chermack
- Thinking in Bets — Annie Duke
- Superforecasting — Philip Tetlock
Practice: For interactive scenario-based thinking exercises applied to investment, career, and life decisions, explore KeepRule Scenarios — a platform that walks you through real-world decisions using principles from the world's greatest thinkers.
Have a template or framework to add? PRs are welcome. Please include:
- A clear explanation of when to use it
- A ready-to-copy Markdown template
- At least one example
MIT License — see LICENSE for details.