Deep-research notes on Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAOI) — a vertically integrated optical transceiver maker at the center of the 400G → 800G → 1.6T AI data-center upgrade cycle.
Last refreshed: April 9, 2026 (post-market) via the Unusual Whales API and primary sources (SEC filings, earnings calls, press releases, SCOTUS opinions).
| Price (close 4/9/26) | $136.05 (+30.9% in 3 sessions) |
| Market cap | $10.02B |
| Beta / IV / IV Rank | 3.9456 / 159.8% / 97.8% (1Y max) |
| Next earnings | May 14, 2026 — est. EPS -$0.10 |
| FY2025 revenue | $455.7M (+82.8% YoY) |
| FY2026 guide | >$1B (+120%) |
| FY2025 GAAP EPS (diluted) | -$0.64 |
| Insider net selling (2025–26) | -$63.5M (31 sells vs 4 buys) |
| Analyst coverage | Rosenblatt $140 (3% above spot), Needham $80, B. Riley $54, Northland $35 |
[!important] Why this research exists AAOI is a high-beta, high-volatility AI infrastructure play priced for flawless 1.6T execution. The thesis is binary into May 14 earnings. This vault documents the bull/bear asymmetry, the options structure, insider behavior, geopolitical exposure, and competitor positioning in enough depth to trade the name with defined risk.
| # | File | What it covers |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 00-Index.md | Dashboard, quick stats, relationship graph, IV term structure chart |
| 1 | 01-Company-Overview.md | Snapshot, vertical integration stack, Amazon $4B warrant, price arc from $1.48 → $136.99 |
| 2 | 02-Technology-Edge.md | EML laser moat, 1.6T OSFP DR8 LPO specs, 349-patent portfolio, R&D profile, SiPh/CPO risk, NVIDIA gap |
| 3 | 03-Competitor-Analysis.md | COHR, LITE, FN, TSEM, InnoLight — financials, tech, insiders, valuation |
| 4 | 04-Financials-CapEx.md | Revenue hockey stick, $179M CapEx, RORE, dilution, 6-analyst coverage, valuation framework |
| 5 | 05-Insiders-Board.md | Board bios, Thompson Lin founder story, full 2024–26 Form 4 timeline, monthly sell buckets |
| 6 | 06-Supply-Chain-Geopolitics.md | Supply chain map, SCOTUS IEEPA ruling, gallium ban suspension, Section 301 status, Taiwan risk |
| 7 | 07-Options-Flow-Intelligence.md | IV term structure, flow/premium snapshot, max pain, dealer greeks, earnings reaction history |
| 8 | 08-Bull-Bear-Outlook.md | 3-month and 3-year scenario trees, hyperscaler CapEx backdrop, M&A comps, position sizing |
The vault uses Mermaid for relationship graphs, scenario trees, mindmaps, and the IV-term-structure xychart, plus ASCII art for price history and ranking visualizations. All diagrams render natively on GitHub and in Obsidian.
- Vertical integration stack (file 01)
- Revenue segment pie (file 01)
- Manufacturing footprint map (file 01)
- Technology comparison matrix (file 02)
- Competitive ecosystem graph (file 03)
- CapEx hockey stick chart (file 04)
- Insider signal graph with monthly buckets (file 05)
- Supply chain map with geopolitical risk shading (file 06)
- IV term structure xychart (file 00 + file 07)
- Scenario decision tree (file 08)
All live market data (price, beta, IV, IV rank, OI, flow, greeks, max pain, darkpool, insider aggregates, earnings history) was pulled on 2026-04-09 from the Unusual Whales REST API. The canonical snapshot is preserved in the research notes for reproducibility.
Endpoints used (abbreviated):
/api/stock/AAOI/info/api/stock/AAOI/stock-state/api/stock/AAOI/options-volume/api/stock/AAOI/volatility/stats/api/stock/AAOI/volatility/term-structure/api/stock/AAOI/max-pain/api/stock/AAOI/expiry-breakdown/api/stock/AAOI/greek-exposure/api/stock/AAOI/oi-change/api/stock/AAOI/flow-recent/api/stock/AAOI/flow-alerts/api/stock/AAOI/earnings/api/stock/AAOI/insider-buy-sells/api/insider/AAOI/ticker-flow/api/darkpool/AAOI- Equivalent endpoints for peers: COHR, LITE, FN, TSEM
Non-market claims (patent counts, warrant terms, SCOTUS rulings, board composition, M&A precedents, competitor financials) were verified against:
- SEC filings: 10-K, 10-Q, DEF 14A, 8-K via EDGAR
- Company press releases via AAOI Investor Relations
- Earnings call transcripts (Q4 2025 reported 2026-02-26)
- SCOTUS opinions — Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, 24-1287 (Feb 20, 2026)
- Industry press — CNBC, Bloomberg, CFR, White & Case, Fastmarkets, Seeking Alpha, GuruFocus
- Analyst research — Rosenblatt, Needham, B. Riley, Northland Capital
Unverified claims are inline-flagged with <!-- needs verification --> comments.
If you have 5 minutes: 00-Index dashboard → 08-Bull-Bear-Outlook bottom line
If you have 30 minutes: Index → 01-Overview → 07-Options-Flow → 08-Bull-Bear
Full research pass: Read in numerical order (00 → 08). Total length ~2,800 lines of markdown, ~30–45 minutes.
Clone this repo into your Obsidian vault. Internal [[wikilinks]] between files will resolve automatically. The files rely on core Obsidian features (callouts, internal links) plus the following community plugins used in the parent vault:
obsidian-tasks-pluginobsidian-kanbanomnisearchobsidian-mind-map- Any Mermaid-capable markdown renderer
All files render correctly on GitHub. Mermaid diagrams render in GitHub's markdown preview. ASCII art renders in any fixed-width code block.
Re-run the Unusual Whales API calls documented above with a valid token, then re-apply the canonical facts to each file. The agent-driven workflow used for the 2026-04-09 refresh is documented in this repo's commit history.
[!warning] Not investment advice This vault is personal research, not investment advice. Every number in it can be wrong, stale, or misinterpreted. AAOI is a high-beta stock with a history of drawing down >90% (from $103 in 2017 to $1.48 in 2022). The author holds no fiduciary duty and nothing here should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Do your own research. Size positions you can afford to lose completely.
[!info] Data freshness Market data is only as current as the last API pull (2026-04-09 post-market). Options flow, insider activity, and price action can change within hours. Any trading decision requires re-pulling fresh data.
All content © the repository owner. Shared publicly for transparency and learning. No warranty of any kind, express or implied.
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