30 minute reversal playbook
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&si=OkGEB4eFxpKUlr5r&v=0LmH9LkV0wE
The strategy revolves around the NY session open at 9:30 a.m. EST. The trader marks the high and low of the first candle (5, 15min) in a new session, waiting for a break above or below it on lower time frames for continuation. However, if no continuation occurs (market gravitates to the range's top/bottom without breaking out), it leads to either consolidation or reversal. This strategy focuses on the reversal scenario as a high-probability alternative.
For reversals, the first 30-minute candle (9:30–10:00 a.m. EST) is key because many reversals align with news events at 10:00 a.m. This differs from shorter time frames (1, 5, 15 minute) used for continuation setups.
Markets don't always continue; if they fail to break out, reversal is likely. The setup occurs daily, but trades aren't taken every day. Only when criteria are met to avoid losses.
The strategy has three main steps, with two types of reversal entries (aggressive and confirmatory).
- Wait for the first 30 minutes (9:30–10:00 a.m. EST) to form the candle.
- Mark the high and low of this candle, creating the "30-minute range."
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Observe if there is confluence on this level with previous levels (PD-C, PD-HL, PM-HL and other zone)
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Observe what the price and volume action as price to push beyond the range high or low but reject and close back inside (indicated by long wicks e.g: upper wick for upside rejection, lower wick for downside).
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This "liquidity grab" signals potential reversal: sellers stepping in above the high (for downside reversal) or buyers below the low (for upside reversal).
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Two Entry Types:
- Entry 1 (Aggressive, at Range Top/Bottom): Enter short (for downside) off the range high after rejection (e.g., upper wick). Stops above the wick's high; targets toward the range low and beyond. Low risk, high reward, but riskier due to less confirmation.
- Entry 2 (Confirmatory, Continuation After Reversal): Wait for a 5-minute candle to close beyond the range (e.g., below low for downside). Then, look for a retest of the range low/high as resistance/support. Enter short/long on the retest. Stops above the retest high; targets further in the reversal direction. Preferred by the presenter for higher probability, as it confirms the reversal first.
- Switch to 1-minute for finer confirmation: Look for market structure shifts (e.g., breaking above a down-close candle after liquidity grab below the low for upside reversal).
- Ensure price reclaims key levels (e.g., above the liquidity sweep level) and breaks prior structure (e.g., higher highs for upside).