-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 1
Expand file tree
/
Copy pathmain.py
More file actions
772 lines (644 loc) · 35.7 KB
/
main.py
File metadata and controls
772 lines (644 loc) · 35.7 KB
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
580
581
582
583
584
585
586
587
588
589
590
591
592
593
594
595
596
597
598
599
600
601
602
603
604
605
606
607
608
609
610
611
612
613
614
615
616
617
618
619
620
621
622
623
624
625
626
627
628
629
630
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
638
639
640
641
642
643
644
645
646
647
648
649
650
651
652
653
654
655
656
657
658
659
660
661
662
663
664
665
666
667
668
669
670
671
672
673
674
675
676
677
678
679
680
681
682
683
684
685
686
687
688
689
690
691
692
693
694
695
696
697
698
699
700
701
702
703
704
705
706
707
708
709
710
711
712
713
714
715
716
717
718
719
720
721
722
723
724
725
726
727
728
729
730
731
732
733
734
735
736
737
738
739
740
741
742
743
744
745
746
747
748
749
750
751
752
753
754
755
756
757
758
759
760
761
762
763
764
765
766
767
768
769
770
771
772
#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
ETF夏普比率最优组合研究系统
主执行脚本
重要提示:需要Tushare Pro账号和2000+积分
"""
import sys
import os
import logging
import numpy as np
# 添加src目录到Python路径
sys.path.append(os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), 'src'))
# 设置中文字体(尽早设置)
try:
from src.font_config import setup_chinese_font
setup_chinese_font()
except ImportError as e:
print(f"⚠️ 字体配置模块导入失败: {e}")
except Exception as e:
print(f"⚠️ 字体设置失败: {e}")
from src.config import get_config
from src.data_fetcher import get_data_fetcher
from src.data_processor import get_data_processor
from src.evaluator import get_portfolio_evaluator
from src.visualizer import get_visualizer
from src.utils import (
setup_logging, save_results, print_welcome_banner,
print_summary_table, Timer
)
# 导入新的增强模块
from src.risk_manager import get_advanced_risk_manager
from src.rebalancing_engine import get_rebalancing_engine
from src.multi_objective_optimizer import get_multi_objective_optimizer
from src.investment_tools import (
get_investment_calculator, get_signal_generator,
get_performance_attribution, get_portfolio_analyzer
)
from src.html_report_generator import get_html_report_generator
from src.correlation_analyzer import get_correlation_analyzer
# 导入统一的量化信号模块
from src.quant_signals import get_quant_signals, get_simple_quant_signals, get_advanced_quant_indicators
# 导入增强优化器(保留原有模块)
from src.enhanced_portfolio_optimizer import get_enhanced_portfolio_optimizer
from src.enhanced_visualizer import get_enhanced_visualizer
from src.simple_enhanced_optimizer import get_simple_enhanced_optimizer
# 导入统一优化器
from src.portfolio_optimizer import get_portfolio_optimizer
OPTIMIZER_TYPE = "unified"
class EnhancedETFSharpeOptimizer:
"""增强版ETF夏普比率最优组合研究系统"""
def __init__(self):
"""初始化主类"""
self.logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
self.config = get_config()
self.data_fetcher = get_data_fetcher()
self.data_processor = get_data_processor(self.config.trading_days)
self.portfolio_optimizer = get_portfolio_optimizer(self.config.risk_free_rate)
self.evaluator = get_portfolio_evaluator(self.config.trading_days, self.config.risk_free_rate)
self.visualizer = get_visualizer(self.config.output_dir)
self.html_report_generator = get_html_report_generator(self.config.output_dir)
self.correlation_analyzer = get_correlation_analyzer()
# 初始化新增模块
self.risk_manager = get_advanced_risk_manager()
self.rebalancing_engine = get_rebalancing_engine()
self.multi_objective_optimizer = get_multi_objective_optimizer(
self.config.risk_free_rate, self.config.trading_days
)
self.investment_calculator = get_investment_calculator()
self.signal_generator = get_signal_generator()
self.performance_attribution = get_performance_attribution()
self.portfolio_analyzer = get_portfolio_analyzer()
# 初始化统一的量化信号模块
self.quant_signals = get_quant_signals(self.config.trading_days, mode='advanced')
# 初始化增强优化器
self.enhanced_optimizer = get_enhanced_portfolio_optimizer(
self.config.risk_free_rate, self.config.trading_days
)
self.enhanced_visualizer = get_enhanced_visualizer(self.config.output_dir)
# 初始化简化模块作为备用
self.simple_quant_signals = get_simple_quant_signals(self.config.trading_days)
self.simple_enhanced_optimizer = get_simple_enhanced_optimizer(
self.config.risk_free_rate, self.config.trading_days
)
# 存储中间结果
self.raw_data = None
self.etf_names = None # ETF中文名称映射
self.returns = None
self.annual_mean = None
self.cov_matrix = None
self.optimal_weights = None
self.max_sharpe_ratio = None
self.portfolio_returns = None
self.metrics = None
self.risk_report = None
self.rebalancing_report = None
self.multi_objective_results = None
self.investment_analysis = None
self.correlation_analysis = None
self.enhanced_signals = None
self.enhanced_optimization_results = None
self.enhanced_charts = None
# 记录使用的优化器类型
self.logger.info(f"使用优化器: {OPTIMIZER_TYPE}")
self.logger.info("✅ 增强版ETF优化系统初始化完成")
def run_analysis(self) -> None:
"""运行完整的增强分析流程"""
print_welcome_banner()
try:
with Timer("完整增强分析流程"):
# 1. 数据获取
self._fetch_data()
# 2. 数据处理
self._process_data()
# 3. 组合优化
self._optimize_portfolio()
# 4. 多目标优化比较
self._run_multi_objective_optimization()
# 5. 计算评估指标
self._evaluate_portfolio()
# 6. 高级风险分析
self._analyze_risks()
# 7. 再平衡策略分析
self._analyze_rebalancing()
# 8. 高级量化指标分析
self._analyze_enhanced_quant_signals()
# 9. 增强投资组合优化
self._run_enhanced_optimization()
# 10. 投资实用工具分析(现在有增强策略数据了)
self._analyze_investment_tools()
# 11. 相关性分析
self._analyze_correlations()
# 12. 生成可视化
self._generate_visualizations()
# 13. 保存结果
self._save_results()
# 14. 生成HTML报告
self._generate_html_report()
# 15. 打印增强报告
self._print_enhanced_final_report()
self.logger.info("✅ 增强分析完成!")
except Exception as e:
self.logger.error(f"❌ 分析失败: {e}")
sys.exit(1)
def _fetch_data(self) -> None:
"""获取数据"""
with Timer("数据获取"):
# 获取ETF价格数据
self.raw_data = self.data_fetcher.fetch_etf_data()
# 获取ETF中文名称
self.etf_names = self.data_fetcher.get_etf_names(self.config.etf_codes)
self.logger.info(f"获取到 {len(self.raw_data)} 个交易日数据")
self.logger.info(f"成功获取 {len(self.etf_names)} 个ETF名称信息")
def _process_data(self) -> None:
"""处理数据"""
with Timer("数据处理"):
self.returns, self.annual_mean, self.cov_matrix = self.data_processor.process_data(self.raw_data)
# 打印数据摘要
data_summary = self.data_processor.get_data_summary(
self.returns, self.annual_mean, self.cov_matrix
)
print_summary_table({"数据摘要": data_summary})
def _optimize_portfolio(self) -> None:
"""优化投资组合"""
with Timer("组合优化"):
self.optimal_weights, self.max_sharpe_ratio = self.portfolio_optimizer.maximize_sharpe_ratio(
self.annual_mean, self.cov_matrix
)
# 计算有效前沿
risks, returns_list = self.portfolio_optimizer.calculate_efficient_frontier(
self.annual_mean, self.cov_matrix
)
# 计算最优组合的风险和收益
portfolio_return = self.annual_mean.values @ self.optimal_weights
portfolio_vol = np.sqrt(self.optimal_weights.T @ self.cov_matrix.values @ self.optimal_weights)
# 存储有效前沿数据
self.efficient_frontier_data = {
'risks': risks,
'returns': returns_list,
'optimal_risk': portfolio_vol,
'optimal_return': portfolio_return
}
# 打印优化摘要
optimization_summary = self.portfolio_optimizer.get_optimization_summary(
self.optimal_weights, self.max_sharpe_ratio,
self.annual_mean, self.cov_matrix
)
print_summary_table({"优化结果": optimization_summary})
def _evaluate_portfolio(self) -> None:
"""评估投资组合"""
with Timer("组合评估"):
# 计算投资组合收益率
self.portfolio_returns = (self.returns * self.optimal_weights).sum(axis=1)
# 计算评估指标
self.metrics = self.evaluator.calculate_portfolio_metrics(self.portfolio_returns)
# 打印评估报告
self.evaluator.print_evaluation_report(
self.metrics, self.optimal_weights, self.config.etf_codes, self.etf_names
)
def _generate_visualizations(self) -> None:
"""生成可视化图表"""
with Timer("可视化生成"):
self.visualizer.generate_all_charts(
returns=self.returns,
optimal_weights=self.optimal_weights,
etf_codes=self.config.etf_codes,
risks=self.efficient_frontier_data['risks'],
returns_list=self.efficient_frontier_data['returns'],
optimal_risk=self.efficient_frontier_data['optimal_risk'],
optimal_return=self.efficient_frontier_data['optimal_return'],
portfolio_returns=self.portfolio_returns,
etf_names=self.etf_names
)
def _save_results(self) -> None:
"""保存结果"""
with Timer("结果保存"):
# 准备保存的数据
results = {
'config': {
'etf_codes': self.config.etf_codes,
'start_date': self.config.start_date,
'end_date': self.config.end_date,
'risk_free_rate': self.config.risk_free_rate,
'trading_days': self.config.trading_days
},
'optimization_results': {
'optimal_weights': dict(zip(self.config.etf_codes, self.optimal_weights)),
'max_sharpe_ratio': self.max_sharpe_ratio,
'portfolio_return': self.annual_mean.values @ self.optimal_weights,
'portfolio_volatility': np.sqrt(self.optimal_weights.T @ self.cov_matrix.values @ self.optimal_weights)
},
'performance_metrics': self.metrics,
'efficient_frontier': {
'risks': self.efficient_frontier_data['risks'],
'returns': self.efficient_frontier_data['returns']
},
'data_summary': {
'period_days': len(self.returns),
'etf_annual_returns': self.annual_mean.to_dict(),
'etf_volatilities': {etf: np.sqrt(self.cov_matrix.loc[etf, etf])
for etf in self.annual_mean.index}
},
'correlation_analysis': self.correlation_analysis if self.correlation_analysis else {}
}
save_results(results, "optimization_results.json")
def _generate_html_report(self) -> None:
"""生成HTML报告"""
with Timer("HTML报告生成"):
self.logger.info("📝 开始生成HTML分析报告...")
try:
# 准备报告数据
config_data = {
'etf_codes': self.config.etf_codes,
'start_date': self.config.start_date,
'end_date': self.config.end_date,
'risk_free_rate': self.config.risk_free_rate,
'trading_days': self.config.trading_days
}
optimization_data = {
'optimal_weights': dict(zip(self.config.etf_codes, self.optimal_weights)),
'max_sharpe_ratio': self.max_sharpe_ratio,
'portfolio_return': self.annual_mean.values @ self.optimal_weights,
'portfolio_volatility': np.sqrt(self.optimal_weights.T @ self.cov_matrix.values @ self.optimal_weights),
'data_summary': {
'etf_annual_returns': self.annual_mean.to_dict(),
'etf_volatilities': {etf: np.sqrt(self.cov_matrix.loc[etf, etf])
for etf in self.annual_mean.index}
}
}
# 生成增强HTML报告
report_path = self.html_report_generator.generate_enhanced_html_report(
config=config_data,
optimization_results=optimization_data,
performance_metrics=self.metrics,
risk_report=getattr(self, 'risk_report', None),
investment_analysis=getattr(self, 'investment_analysis', None),
correlation_analysis=getattr(self, 'correlation_analysis', None),
etf_names=self.etf_names,
enhanced_signals=getattr(self, 'enhanced_signals', None),
enhanced_results=getattr(self, 'enhanced_optimization_results', None),
enhanced_charts=getattr(self, 'enhanced_charts', None)
)
self.logger.info(f"✅ HTML报告生成完成: {report_path}")
except Exception as e:
self.logger.error(f"❌ HTML报告生成失败: {e}")
# 不抛出异常,继续执行其他步骤
def _run_multi_objective_optimization(self) -> None:
"""运行多目标优化比较"""
with Timer("多目标优化分析"):
self.logger.info("🔄 开始多目标优化比较...")
self.multi_objective_results = self.multi_objective_optimizer.compare_optimization_methods(
self.annual_mean, self.cov_matrix, self.returns
)
def _analyze_risks(self) -> None:
"""进行高级风险分析"""
with Timer("高级风险分析"):
self.logger.info("🔒 开始高级风险分析...")
self.risk_report = self.risk_manager.generate_risk_report(
self.portfolio_returns, self.optimal_weights,
self.config.etf_codes, self.returns
)
def _analyze_rebalancing(self) -> None:
"""分析再平衡策略"""
with Timer("再平衡策略分析"):
self.logger.info("⚖️ 开始再平衡策略分析...")
# 模拟当前权重(假设有5%的偏离)
current_weights = self.optimal_weights + np.random.normal(0, 0.02, len(self.optimal_weights))
current_weights = np.maximum(current_weights, 0)
current_weights = current_weights / np.sum(current_weights)
self.rebalancing_report = self.rebalancing_engine.generate_rebalancing_report(
current_weights, self.optimal_weights, 1000000, # 假设100万组合
self.portfolio_returns, self.config.etf_codes, self.returns
)
def _analyze_investment_tools(self) -> None:
"""分析投资实用工具"""
with Timer("投资工具分析"):
self.logger.info("💼 开始投资工具分析...")
# 原始策略投资增长预测
original_growth_projection = self.investment_calculator.project_portfolio_growth(
self.metrics['annual_return'],
self.metrics['annual_volatility'],
years=5
)
# 计算增强策略的投资组合指标和增长预测
enhanced_growth_projection = None
if (self.enhanced_optimization_results and
'enhanced_metrics' in self.enhanced_optimization_results):
enhanced_metrics = self.enhanced_optimization_results['enhanced_metrics']
# 使用增强策略的年化收益率和波动率进行增长预测
enhanced_annual_return = enhanced_metrics.get('portfolio_return', self.metrics['annual_return'])
enhanced_annual_volatility = enhanced_metrics.get('portfolio_volatility', self.metrics['annual_volatility'])
try:
enhanced_growth_projection = self.investment_calculator.project_portfolio_growth(
enhanced_annual_return,
enhanced_annual_volatility,
years=5
)
except Exception as e:
self.logger.error(f"增强策略增长预测计算失败: {e}")
enhanced_growth_projection = None
# 行业敞口分析(基于原始策略)
sector_analysis = self.portfolio_analyzer.analyze_sector_exposure(
self.config.etf_codes, self.optimal_weights
)
# 投资建议
recommendations = self.portfolio_analyzer.generate_investment_recommendations(
self.risk_report, self.metrics
)
self.investment_analysis = {
'growth_projection': original_growth_projection,
'enhanced_growth_projection': enhanced_growth_projection,
'sector_analysis': sector_analysis,
'recommendations': recommendations
}
def _analyze_correlations(self) -> None:
"""进行相关性分析"""
with Timer("相关性分析"):
self.logger.info("🔗 开始相关性分析...")
self.correlation_analysis = self.correlation_analyzer.generate_correlation_report(
self.returns, self.optimal_weights, self.config.etf_codes
)
def _print_enhanced_final_report(self) -> None:
"""打印增强版最终报告"""
print("\n" + "="*100)
print("🎯 增强版ETF投资组合优化系统 - 综合分析报告")
print("="*100)
print(f"\n📅 分析期间: {self.config.start_date} 至 {self.config.end_date}")
print(f"📊 分析标的: {', '.join(self.config.etf_codes)}")
print(f"💰 无风险利率: {self.config.risk_free_rate:.2%}")
# 基础优化结果
print(f"\n🏆 最优组合基础表现:")
print(f" • 最大夏普比率: {self.max_sharpe_ratio:.4f}")
print(f" • 年化收益率: {self.metrics['annual_return']:.2%}")
print(f" • 年化波动率: {self.metrics['annual_volatility']:.2%}")
print(f" • 最大回撤: {self.metrics['max_drawdown']:.2%}")
print(f" • 夏普比率: {self.metrics['sharpe_ratio']:.4f}")
# 多目标优化比较
if self.multi_objective_results:
print(f"\n🔄 多目标优化比较:")
for method, result in self.multi_objective_results.items():
metrics = result['metrics']
print(f" • {result['method']}: "
f"收益={metrics['portfolio_return']:.2%}, "
f"波动={metrics['portfolio_volatility']:.2%}, "
f"夏普={metrics['sharpe_ratio']:.4f}")
# 风险分析结果
if self.risk_report:
risk_rating = self.risk_report.get('risk_rating', {}).get('overall_risk', '未知')
var_95 = self.risk_report.get('var_cvar_analysis', {}).get(0.95, {}).get('var_historical', 0)
concentration_hhi = self.risk_report.get('concentration_risk', {}).get('hhi', 0)
print(f"\n🔒 高级风险分析:")
print(f" • 综合风险评级: {risk_rating}")
print(f" • 95% VaR (历史): {var_95:.2%}")
print(f" • 集中度指数 (HHI): {concentration_hhi:.0f}")
# 再平衡建议
if self.rebalancing_report:
needs_rebalancing = self.rebalancing_report.get('weight_analysis', {}).get('needs_rebalancing', False)
max_deviation = self.rebalancing_report.get('weight_analysis', {}).get('max_deviation', 0)
print(f"\n⚖️ 再平衡分析:")
print(f" • 需要再平衡: {'是' if needs_rebalancing else '否'}")
print(f" • 最大权重偏离: {max_deviation:.2%}")
# 相关性分析
if self.correlation_analysis:
risk_assessment = self.correlation_analysis.get('risk_analysis', {}).get('risk_assessment', {})
summary = self.correlation_analysis.get('analysis_summary', {})
print(f"\n🔗 相关性分析:")
print(f" • 相关性风险等级: {risk_assessment.get('risk_level', '未知')}")
print(f" • 分散化评分: {summary.get('diversification_score', 0):.1f}/100")
print(f" • 平均相关性: {summary.get('average_correlation', 0):.3f}")
print(f" • 高相关性ETF对: {summary.get('high_correlation_pairs', 0)}对")
# 投资建议
if self.investment_analysis:
recommendations = self.investment_analysis.get('recommendations', [])
growth_proj = self.investment_analysis.get('growth_projection', {})
print(f"\n💡 投资建议:")
for i, rec in enumerate(recommendations[:3], 1): # 显示前3条建议
print(f" {i}. {rec}")
print(f"\n📈 5年增长预测 (100万初始投资):")
print(f" 📊 原始策略:")
print(f" • 平均预期价值: {growth_proj.get('final_value_statistics', {}).get('mean', 0):,.0f}元")
print(f" • 中位数价值: {growth_proj.get('final_value_statistics', {}).get('median', 0):,.0f}元")
# 显示增强策略的增长预测
enhanced_growth_proj = self.investment_analysis.get('enhanced_growth_projection')
if enhanced_growth_proj:
print(f" 🚀 量化增强策略:")
print(f" • 平均预期价值: {enhanced_growth_proj.get('final_value_statistics', {}).get('mean', 0):,.0f}元")
print(f" • 中位数价值: {enhanced_growth_proj.get('final_value_statistics', {}).get('median', 0):,.0f}元")
# 计算改进情况
original_mean = growth_proj.get('final_value_statistics', {}).get('mean', 0)
enhanced_mean = enhanced_growth_proj.get('final_value_statistics', {}).get('mean', 0)
if original_mean > 0:
improvement = ((enhanced_mean - original_mean) / original_mean) * 100
if improvement > 0:
print(f" • 预期提升: +{improvement:.1f}%")
else:
print(f" • 预期变化: {improvement:.1f}%")
else:
print(f" 🚀 量化增强策略: 暂无数据")
# 权重分配
print(f"\n⚖️ 最优权重分配:")
for etf, weight in zip(self.config.etf_codes, self.optimal_weights):
if weight > 0.001:
print(f" • {etf}: {weight:.2%}")
# 文件输出
print(f"\n📈 可视化图表:")
print(f" • 累计收益对比图: outputs/cumulative_returns.png")
print(f" • 有效前沿图: outputs/efficient_frontier.png")
print(f" • 权重饼图: outputs/portfolio_weights.png")
print(f" • 收益率分布图: outputs/returns_distribution.png")
print(f"\n💾 数据文件:")
print(f" • 详细结果: outputs/optimization_results.json")
print(f" • 运行日志: etf_optimizer.log")
print(f"\n📊 HTML报告:")
print(f" • 精美分析报告: outputs/etf_optimization_report.html")
print(f" (包含完整的分析结果、可视化图表和投资建议)")
print("\n" + "="*100)
print("✅ 增强分析完成!所有结果已保存到 outputs/ 目录")
print("🎯 本报告提供了全面的投资决策支持,建议结合个人风险承受能力进行投资")
print("="*100)
def _analyze_enhanced_quant_signals(self) -> None:
"""分析高级量化指标"""
with Timer("高级量化指标分析"):
try:
self.logger.info("🔬 开始高级量化指标分析...")
# 生成增强信号
# 从raw_data中提取价格数据,raw_data已经合并了所有ETF的价格
price_columns = [col for col in self.raw_data.columns if col not in ['trade_date', 'ts_code']]
prices = self.raw_data[['trade_date'] + price_columns].set_index('trade_date')
# 直接使用简化量化指标版本
self.enhanced_signals = self.simple_quant_signals.generate_signals(
self.returns, prices
)
if self.enhanced_signals:
print("\n" + "="*70)
print("🔬 量化指标分析完成")
print("="*70)
# 显示量化信号结果
if 'signal_analysis' in self.enhanced_signals:
analysis = self.enhanced_signals['signal_analysis']
print(f"\n📊 量化信号概况:")
print(f" • 信号数量: {analysis['signal_count']}")
print(f" • 最佳表现ETF: {list(analysis['top_performers'].keys())[:3]}")
print(f" • 信号类型: {', '.join(analysis['signal_names'][:5])}...")
# 显示综合信号排名
if 'composite_signal' in self.enhanced_signals:
print(f"\n📈 综合信号排名 (前5名):")
composite = self.enhanced_signals['composite_signal'].sort_values(ascending=False)
for i, (etf, score) in enumerate(composite.head().items(), 1):
etf_name = self.etf_names.get(etf, etf) if self.etf_names else etf
print(f" {i}. {etf_name} ({etf}): {score:.3f}")
# 生成信号建议
recommendations = self.simple_quant_signals.get_signal_recommendations(self.enhanced_signals)
if recommendations:
print(f"\n💡 量化信号建议:")
for rec in recommendations[:3]:
print(f" • {rec}")
print("="*70)
# 显示主要信号
if 'composite_signal' in self.enhanced_signals:
print("\n📊 综合量化信号排名:")
composite_signal = self.enhanced_signals['composite_signal'].sort_values(ascending=False)
for etf, signal in composite_signal.items():
etf_name = self.etf_names.get(etf, etf) if self.etf_names else etf
print(f" {etf_name} ({etf}): {signal:.3f}")
# 显示信号分析
if 'signal_normalized' in self.enhanced_signals:
print("\n📈 分项信号强度:")
signal_df = self.enhanced_signals['signal_normalized']
for signal_type in signal_df.columns:
print(f"\n {signal_type}:")
for etf in signal_df.index:
signal_value = signal_df.loc[etf, signal_type]
etf_name = self.etf_names.get(etf, etf) if self.etf_names else etf
emoji = "📈" if signal_value > 0.5 else "📉" if signal_value < -0.5 else "➡️"
print(f" {emoji} {etf_name}: {signal_value:.2f}")
# 计算信号表现
signal_performance = self.quant_signals._calculate_signal_performance(
self.enhanced_signals, self.returns
)
if signal_performance:
print("\n⚡ 信号历史表现:")
for metric, value in signal_performance.items():
print(f" {metric}: {value:.4f}")
self.logger.info("✅ 高级量化指标分析完成")
except Exception as e:
self.logger.error(f"❌ 高级量化指标分析失败: {e}")
self.enhanced_signals = {}
def _run_enhanced_optimization(self) -> None:
"""运行增强投资组合优化"""
with Timer("增强投资组合优化"):
try:
self.logger.info("🚀 开始增强投资组合优化...")
if self.enhanced_signals:
# 准备价格数据
price_columns = [col for col in self.raw_data.columns if col not in ['trade_date', 'ts_code']]
prices = self.raw_data[['trade_date'] + price_columns].set_index('trade_date')
# 直接使用简化增强优化
enhanced_weights, enhanced_metrics = self.simple_enhanced_optimizer.optimize_with_signals(
self.returns, self.enhanced_signals
)
comparison = self.simple_enhanced_optimizer.compare_with_traditional(
self.returns, self.enhanced_signals
)
print("\n" + "="*70)
print("🚀 增强投资组合优化完成")
print("="*70)
# 显示增强优化结果
print(f"\n📊 增强优化指标:")
print(f" • 夏普比率: {enhanced_metrics.get('sharpe_ratio', 0):.4f}")
print(f" • 预期年化收益: {enhanced_metrics.get('portfolio_return', 0):.2%}")
print(f" • 年化波动率: {enhanced_metrics.get('portfolio_volatility', 0):.2%}")
print(f" • 集中度指数 (HHI): {enhanced_metrics.get('concentration_hhi', 0):.0f}")
print(f" • 有效资产数量: {enhanced_metrics.get('effective_assets', 0):.1f}")
print(f" • 分散化比率: {enhanced_metrics.get('diversification_ratio', 0):.3f}")
# 显示比较结果
if 'improvement' in comparison:
improvement = comparison['improvement']
print(f"\n📈 相比传统优化:")
print(f" • 夏普比率提升: {improvement.get('sharpe_ratio_improvement', 0):+.4f}")
print(f" • 夏普比率提升幅度: {improvement.get('sharpe_improvement_pct', 0):+.1f}%")
print(f" • 收益变化: {improvement.get('return_change', 0):+.2%}")
print(f" • 风险变化: {improvement.get('volatility_change', 0):+.2%}")
# 显示优化建议
recommendations = self.simple_enhanced_optimizer.get_optimization_recommendations(comparison)
if recommendations:
print(f"\n💡 优化建议:")
for rec in recommendations:
print(f" {rec}")
print("="*70)
# 将权重数组转换为字典格式
enhanced_weights_dict = {}
for etf, weight in zip(self.config.etf_codes, enhanced_weights):
if weight > 0.001: # 只保存有效权重
enhanced_weights_dict[etf] = float(weight)
self.enhanced_optimization_results = {
'enhanced_weights': enhanced_weights_dict,
'enhanced_metrics': enhanced_metrics,
'comparison': comparison,
'recommendations': self.enhanced_optimizer.get_optimization_recommendations(comparison)
}
# 显示增强优化结果
print("\n" + "="*70)
print("🚀 增强投资组合优化结果")
print("="*70)
print(f"\n📊 增强优化指标:")
print(f" • 夏普比率: {enhanced_metrics.get('sharpe_ratio', 0):.4f}")
print(f" • 预期年化收益: {enhanced_metrics.get('portfolio_return', 0):.2%}")
print(f" • 年化波动率: {enhanced_metrics.get('portfolio_volatility', 0):.2%}")
print(f" • 集中度指数 (HHI): {enhanced_metrics.get('concentration_hhi', 0):.0f}")
print(f" • 有效资产数量: {enhanced_metrics.get('effective_assets', 0):.1f}")
print(f" • 分散化比率: {enhanced_metrics.get('diversification_ratio', 0):.3f}")
print(f"\n⚖️ 增强优化权重分配:")
for etf, weight in zip(self.config.etf_codes, enhanced_weights):
if weight > 0.001:
etf_name = self.etf_names.get(etf, etf) if self.etf_names else etf
print(f" • {etf_name} ({etf}): {weight:.2%}")
# 显示比较结果
if 'improvement' in comparison:
improvement = comparison['improvement']
print(f"\n📈 相比传统优化:")
print(f" • 夏普比率提升: {improvement.get('sharpe_ratio_improvement', 0):+.4f}")
print(f" • 夏普比率提升幅度: {improvement.get('sharpe_improvement_pct', 0):+.1f}%")
print(f" • 收益变化: {improvement.get('return_change', 0):+.2%}")
print(f" • 风险变化: {improvement.get('volatility_change', 0):+.2%}")
# 显示优化建议
if self.enhanced_optimization_results['recommendations']:
print(f"\n💡 优化建议:")
for rec in self.enhanced_optimization_results['recommendations']:
print(f" {rec}")
self.logger.info("✅ 增强投资组合优化完成")
except Exception as e:
self.logger.error(f"❌ 增强投资组合优化失败: {e}")
self.enhanced_optimization_results = {}
# 生成增强可视化图表
try:
self.enhanced_charts = self.enhanced_visualizer.generate_all_enhanced_charts(
signals=self.enhanced_signals,
comparison=self.enhanced_optimization_results.get('comparison') if self.enhanced_optimization_results else None,
traditional_weights=self.optimal_weights,
enhanced_weights=self.enhanced_optimization_results.get('enhanced_weights') if self.enhanced_optimization_results else None,
etf_codes=self.config.etf_codes,
etf_names=self.etf_names
)
self.logger.info("✅ 增强可视化图表生成完成")
except Exception as e:
self.logger.error(f"❌ 增强可视化图表生成失败: {e}")
self.enhanced_charts = []
def main():
"""主函数"""
try:
# 设置日志
setup_logging("INFO")
# 获取logger实例
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
# 创建并运行增强版分析器
enhanced_optimizer = EnhancedETFSharpeOptimizer()
enhanced_optimizer.run_analysis()
except KeyboardInterrupt:
logger.info("用户中断执行")
sys.exit(0)
except Exception as e:
logger.error(f"程序执行失败: {e}")
sys.exit(1)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()